11% GDP growth in 2021-22: Economic survey predictions

GDP
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  • India is likely to have 11% GDP growth in the fiscal year beginning April 1 following a sharp recovery from the pandemic-driven situation this year, a source revealed.
  • The annual economic survey is set to forecast nominal GDP, including inflation which will rise by 15.4%.

According to a source, the annual economic survey on Friday revealed that India is likely to have 11% GDP growth in the fiscal year beginning April 1 following a sharp recovery from the pandemic-driven situation this year.

The economic survey predicts that the Indian economy may contract by 7.7% in the current fiscal year to March 31 which will mark the deepest contraction in four decades. Asia’s third-largest economy, which the International Monetary Fund singled out as a global bright spot a few years ago has seen a record fall in 2020.

However, according to the government, the COVID-19 vaccine rollout can re-energise the Indian economy with an 11% growth next year. The source who is familiar with the matter said it will be the strongest growth since India liberalised its economy in 1991.

The annual economic survey is set to forecast nominal GDP, including inflation which will rise 15.4%, highest since India’s independence in 1947, the source said. High nominal GDP points towards higher tax collections. The basis for key figures in the budget, which will be delivered on Monday by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, highly depends on the survey’s projections.

Following the Indian government’s ballooning debt, Sitharaman might be required to make some tough choices in order to keep it in check while presenting an expenditure plan that will successfully uplift the Indian economy.

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